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Key developments on Oct. 22:
The U.S. is planning to provide Ukraine with an aid package of $700-800 million for the domestic development of long-range capabilities, President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists on Oct. 21.
On the same day, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a new $400 million military aid package during a surprise visit to Kyiv. In addition, Zelensky also said that Washington is preparing to provide $800 million for the production of Ukrainian drones.
“Then there should be also the next tranche in the amount of $700-800 million,” Zelensky said at a meeting attended by the Kyiv Independent, in reference to the package designated for long-range capabilities.
Zelensky and Austin also discussed how much of the $8 billion in aid the U.S. announced in late September could be dedicated to Ukrainian production by the end of this year.
Domestically produced long-range weapons are key to Ukraine’s defense strategy, as Western partners refuse to authorize deep strikes in Russia with foreign-made missiles.
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Oct. 21 that Ukraine had invested more than $4 billion in its defense production and urged international partners to invest further, recalling the recent successes of Ukrainian specialists in drone manufacturing.
Despite Zelensky’s appeal to Washington during his recent White House visit, the U.S. has not yet altered its policy on long-range strikes.
Ukrainian drones attacked four plants in Tula, Tambov and Voronezh oblasts in Russia overnight on Oct. 22, Russian local authorities claimed.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses destroyed 11 drones over Bryansk Oblast, three over Belgorod Oblast, two over Kursk Oblast, one over Tula Oblast, and one over Oryol Oblast.
In Tambov Oblast, a Ukrainian drone reportedly set to fire the Biokhim distillery in the town of Rasskazovo, according to Governor Maxim Egorov.
According to the Biokhim website, it produces “products of strategic importance for the state,” in particular ethanol, a solvent which is used in the manufacture of a wide range of products including explosives.
Two more distilleries came under the attack in the settlements of Efremov and Luzhkovsky in Tula Oblast overnight, Governor Dmitry Milyaev said.
Alexander Gusev, Voronezh Oblast governor, claimed a drone attack caused a minor fire on one of the floors of an industrial enterprise.
No casualties have reported.
The Ukrainian military has not yet commented on the reports, which cannot be verified independently.
Ukraine has carried out a number of strikes against airbases and other military facilities in an effort to weaken the more powerful Russian Air Force and curb Moscow’s ability to launch devastating aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities.
North Korea has dispatched pilots who can fly Russian warplanes to join the war in Ukraine, Newsweek reported on Oct. 22, citing South Korean television network TV Chosun.
Moscow is planning to involve Pyongyang in the full-scale war against Ukraine in the coming months, with around 10,000 North Korean soldiers being prepared to join the Russian army, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said earlier in October that the first group of 2,600 soldiers would be deployed to Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine began a cross-border incursion in August and still holds significant swathes of territory.
North Korea denied sending troops to join Russia’s war in Ukraine, calling the recent reports “groundless rumors.”
The report said that this move could mean further training of pilots on Russian combat aircraft.
If the report is confirmed, Russia will become the first country where North Korean pilots will be stationed outside their country since the Vietnam War. They also previously participated in combat operations in Syria and Egypt during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
A Western official told the Kyiv Independent on Oct. 15 that 10,000 North Korean soldiers had already been sent to Russia. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service, put the number at 11,000 and said they would be “ready to fight” by Nov. 1.
A video purportedly showing them at a military training camp inside Russia has also surfaced online.
Moscow and Pyongyang have deepened military cooperation as Russia seeks arms and other support in its full-scale war against Ukraine.
North Korea has also been supplying Russia with ballistic missiles and vast quantities of artillery shells.
South Korea is considering sending a team of personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops that Russia may involve in its full-scale war, Yonhap agency reported on Oct. 22, citing an unnamed government source.
“There is a possibility that personnel will be sent to Ukraine to monitor the tactics and combat capabilities of North Korean special forces dispatched in support of Russia,” the source said.
Moscow is planning to involve Pyongyang in the full-scale war against Ukraine in the coming months, with around 10,000 North Korean soldiers being prepared to join the Russian army, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that the first group of 2,600 soldiers will be deployed to Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine began a cross-border incursion in August and still holds significant swathes of territory.
He said that close to 11,000 North Korean troops are in Russia and will be “ready to fight” in Ukraine by Nov. 1.
If deployed, a South Korean team may include military personnel from intelligence units who will be able to analyze Pyongyang’s warfare tactics or participate in the interrogations of captured North Koreans.
The government is also reportedly considering providing Ukraine with armed support. Up until now, Seoul has only provided humanitarian aid to Kyiv, though it has been reported the country has indirectly supplied artillery shells via the U.S.
In June, South Korea said it would reconsider its policy of not directly supplying Ukraine with weapons after Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un signed a security agreement in Pyongyang.
“While watching signs of North Korea-Russia military cooperation, the response measures will be taken in steps,” the source told Yonhap.
The source said that sending defensive weapons will be prioritized over lethal arms, adding that even if lethal weapons are provided, South Korea will first consider providing them to Kyiv indirectly.
While the U.S. has been cautious about confirming Russia’s plans to engage Pyongyang in its war, South Korea is sounding the alarm, calling such a scenario a “grave security threat” to the international community.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said it believes North Korea will deploy four brigades totaling 12,000 soldiers to the war in Ukraine, including 1,500 special forces.
The Group of Seven (G7) plans to keep Russian assets frozen even after the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Japanese news agency Nikkei reported on Oct. 22, citing its undisclosed sources from G7.
European countries hold roughly two-thirds of the $300 billion in Russian sovereign assetsimmobilized after the outbreak of the full-scale war. While hesitant to confiscate the assets outright, the European Union has devised a plan to use windfall profits to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction and defense needs.
G7 leaders will issue a joint statement in October saying that “Russia’s sovereign assets will remain immobilized until Russia ends its aggression and pays for the damage it has caused to Ukraine,” according to the draft prepared by this year’s chair, Italy.
The bloc will also guarantee a $50 billion loan to Kyiv, Nikkei reported, citing the draft.
During the June G7 summit in Italy, G7 leaders publicly confirmed a deal to provide Ukraine with the $50 billion loan by the end of the year. The loan will be repaid using interest from billions in frozen Russian assets.
In September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a loan of up to 35 billion euros ($39 billion) as part of that pledge. In October, the World Bank’s executive committee approved the creation of a new fund to help fulfill G7’s $50 billion loan.
Estimates of the damage that Russia’s aggression has caused to Ukrainian infrastructure over the past decade vary. The World Bank said in February that it could be as high as $486 billion.
Under the G7 plan, profits from Russia’s frozen assets will gradually be used to repay the loan. EU officials have said that the loan would be “undesignated” and “untargeted,” allowing Ukraine maximum flexibility in how it spends the funds. The EU expects to start distributing the money early next year.